Warmer summers = higher gardening potential

By Rick Thoman
Alaska Climate Specialist
Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Preparedness
International Arctic Research Center/University of Alaska Fairbanks

Environmental change has greatly impacted western Alaska already, and additional change is sure to come. Much of the focus has been on changes in sea ice: the timing, thickness and quality of ice. Given the importance of marine resources to the region this is naturally a significant concern.
Another issue that is important in some areas and will become important in many others is increasing summer warmth. Summer warmth is one of a number of important factors in permafrost thaw, but the prospect of warmer summers also brings the potential for expanded community scale gardening. Pilgrim Hot Springs, with the geothermal heating, is in some ways exceptional, but the low elevations of the inland Seward Peninsula and eastern Norton Sound in general are already noticeably warmer in the summer than coastal areas farther west.
So, in a warmer climate how might the gardening potential look in the region? To get an idea of what the future might hold, the graphic shows accumulated warmth during the summer of 2004, which in many areas was the warmest summer in recent decades (in some areas 1977 was slightly warmer). I've then simply classified the accumulated warmth that summer into one of four categories, from low to high gardening potential.
During summer 2004, accumulated warmth over much of the low elevation Seward Peninsula was in the “adequate” and high categories, so similar to typical conditions today in southcentral Alaska and the Interior. While it will be some time before these conditions become typical in western Alaska, it does highlight how the changes that are in progress may impact our lives in different ways in the future.