In shocking first, sea ice breaks off in mid-February

For over a quarter-century, the Nome National Forest sprouted every year as old Christmas trees and wooden cutouts were placed onto the sea ice in front of Nome for months of late winter and spring. But last week, the cheerful snowmen and trees were dramatically lost, as the shorefast ice near Nome broke off unprecedently early. But what is more troubling than Christmas trees floating off into the distance is that weak sea ice may be a harbinger of trouble for the region’s ecosystem.
Bivers Gologergen, a lifelong subsistence hunter in Nome and Savoonga, said that he hadn’t experienced a breakoff like before, but it didn’t surprise him.
“Our ice is not really formed,” said Gologergen. Both he and Rick Thoman, Alaska Climate Specialist with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at the International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, explained that usually, by this time of year, currents create pressure ridges that keep the shorefast ice near Nome anchored to the shore. Beyond that, the ice is constantly moving as wind and currents push it around, but the ice close to Nome is historically solid in February.
Sea ice has decreased by over 30 percent in the Bering Sea over the first two weeks in February, according to Thoman. The ice is now at its second lowest for this time of year on record. Only 2018 had less.
The low sea ice could have impacts on the ecosystem. In 2018, after two winters of low ice, the Bering Sea struggled to renew its cold pool, a layer of extremely cold water that helps separate the ecosystem of the Northern Bering Sea from the Southern Bering Sea.
Rick Thoman said he was concerned that without the sea ice, there might be trouble renewing the cold pool.
“The sun’s getting higher every day, and that dark, dark water is sucking up that heat,” said Thoman.
Gologergen said that it would be a short subsistence season due to lack of ice. He also said that marine mammals might have challenges pupping, as they give birth on the ice. “As a subsistence hunter, we adapt to environment, we adapt to weather,” said Gologergen. “And I want to say that our marine mammals adapt as well. They might have to swim further to where there’s more solid ice to give birth. It all depends on the conditions nowadays.”
Thoman said that what exactly caused the February 10 break-off of the shorefast ice wasn’t clear. Often, a break-off is caused by a strong north wind, but the winds the day of the break off were eastern. Because of the Quintillion cable cut, the Nome sea ice radar isn’t able to give any clues.
“The extremely warm weather that we’ve had this winter must play a role,” said Thoman. “The ice formed historically late—not necessarily terribly late—compared to recent years. But December through yesterday [February 13] is the second warmest for that period on record.” The winter of 2000 to 2001 was the only one warmer.
On top of that, there wasn’t a lot of south wind this winter, meaning that the ice wasn’t pushed toward the coast and piled up the way it would often be. Thoman said that rafted ice was “pretty crappy” but “a little more robust.”
“The ice was relatively weak to start. It wasn’t thick,” said Thoman, clarifying that he was guessing. “It was not grounded. And so it was able to break off and move out even a little bit just because it didn’t have that physical contact with the bottom for more than a few yards of the beach.”
There are several other areas with lower than usual sea ice now, and the southern extent of the ice is just south of St. Lawrence Island. A lot of the ice is first year ice, according to Gologergen.
“It’s not the type of ice subsistence users like myself look for, and that’s part of how it it’s going to go out real fast with wind conditions in the current, with this young ice that we have,” said Gologergen.
Gologergen knows ice deeply, but he said he is still learning about the ways the ice is changing. He is always paying attention to the ice condition near him and asking friends what their ice condition is like.
“Subsistence hunters go out hunting when the weather permits. That’s the only time we go out, is weather permitting,” said Gologergen. “Warmer weather. Good ocean, good ice.”
“It used to be really good,” he continued. “Nowadays it’s try to go out as much as you could, as fast as you could, because the ice is moving. It could be here on a Monday and then Tuesday it’s all open water. That’s how fast it can move.”
As for the Nome National Forest, all the trees and cutouts were lost when the ice broke off. Charlie Lean, who puts the National Forest up every year, said that the cut outs were built by community members over decades. Now, the Rotary Club is raising money to create new silhouettes.
“[The National Forest] was totally a grassroots or seat-of-the-pants kind of exercise,” said Lean. “It’s been probably thirty years that we had it out there. So trying to keep it going.”